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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... 
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE 
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS 
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY 
WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTHWEST OF 
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A GENERAL MOTION 
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... 
SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION 
OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR 
TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED 
TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILED 
INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND ACTUAL LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR 
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 83.0 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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