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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002
 
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIEGO DE AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
IN THE BAHAMAS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...ELEUTHERA...NEW
PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N... 81.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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