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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES NEW PROVIDENCE ISLAND AND THE FAMILY ISLANDS OF
ANDROS...BIMINI...BERRY...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...  LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.  THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM... SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...  55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION
FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAD DECREASED A BIT BUT DUE TO FLIGHT
LIMITATIONS COULD NOT FLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE.  ANOTHER RECON WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 3 
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...  83.2 W.  MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...  35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...TUESDAY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/BLAKE
 
 
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