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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
KEY WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTHWEST OF 
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 290 MILES...475 KM...
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD NEAR  3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR 
TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED 
TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILED 
INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND ACTUAL LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR 
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 83.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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