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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  47A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
12 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2002

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LILI MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE 
NORTH-NORTHWEST...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD 
BE COMPLETED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
AT 12 AM CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH 
OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF
LOUISIANA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WHILE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...LILI IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO
150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI.  TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF LOUISIANA.  SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST.  THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH 
OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 12 AM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 91.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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