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TROPICAL STORM LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002

...LILI GETTING BETTER AS IT PASSES BETWEEN NORTHWEST JAMAICA AND 
EASTERN CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GUANTANAMO... AND HOLGUIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS AND CIEGO DE AVILA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE
CAYMAN. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN LATER 
THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER 
THIS MORNING.
 
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LILI WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ ON THE SOUTH COAST 
OF EASTERN CUBA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM... 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  6 MPH...10 KM/HR... AND THIS 
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK THE 
CENTER WILL BE PASSING MIDWAY BETWEEN THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN 
CUBA LATER AND THE NORTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
 
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE 
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR  50 MPH... 80 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE 
AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND 
EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.7 N... 77.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
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