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HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002

...LILI ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM SAN LOUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH 
OF CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA.  THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND 
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA AND INTO
THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES LILI A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON 
HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM.  SOME SQUALLS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE WESTERN COASTS OF CUBA SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS OF CUBA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.7 N... 85.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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