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HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 
50 MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST 
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
 
ISIDORE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. 
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH 
OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG 
WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT 
NORTHERN YUCATAN THIS EVENING...BUT JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE 
SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MOST INTENSE 
WINDS ONSHORE.
 
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATION IS INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 
HOURS.  HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ISIDORE COULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA... 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CUBA... 
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TODAY. 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...22.1 N... 86.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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