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HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
 
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE 
NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO 
PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND 
LA HABANA PROVINCES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE 
OF YOUTH.
 
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES 
...105 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF 
CUBA.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM... 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.
 
ISIDORE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR FOR 
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS 
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF 
ISIDORE WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 
ARE NEAR 105 MPH...170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... 
AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...EXTREMELY 
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE 
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...ALONG 
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TODAY. 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY ALONG THE NORTH COAST 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...22.0 N... 85.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 
11 AM EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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