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HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002
 
...ISIDORE RELENTESSLY POUNDING WESTERN CUBA ...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
PROGRESSO TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED BY 
CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AND BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR 
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR INLAND VERY NEAR
MANTUA CUBA.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM... 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ISIDORE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS 
AND THIS HAS PROLONGED ITS INFLUENCE OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...THE 
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 7 
MPH...11 KM/HR...LATER TONIGHT.  THIS WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF 
ISIDORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES...45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE 
OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  

DATA RECIEVED FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT 
CAPE SAN ANTONIO...ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...REPORTED SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 84 MPH...135 KPH AT 5 PM EDT...2100UTC.  THE CALM OF THE 
EYE WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CIUDAD SANDINO AND THERE ARE 
UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF HOUSES SWEPT AWAY BY WIND AND RAIN AND 
COASTAL SECTIONS ARE EXPERIENCING A HIGH STORM SURGE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 84.3 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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