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HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...ISIDORE NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERNMOST 
CUBA ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS...  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS ESTIMATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES 
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND 140 
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.  A RECONNAISSANCE 
PLANE WILL SOON BE IN THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.
 
ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ISIDORE IS NOW MOVING OVER THE ISLE OF 
YOUTH AND WILL CROSS WESTERNMOST CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER 
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.  

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT 
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN BE 
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE 
DAYS.  

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE 
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N... 83.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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