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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2002

...ISIDORE MOVING BACK OVER WATER... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO VERACRUZ.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISIDORE.
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MERIDA...MEXICO AND DATA FROM A 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CENTER OF ISIDORE IS ALREADY 
ON THE COAST.
  
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.7 WEST 
OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...NORTH OF MERIDA MEXICO.
 
ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME 
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ISIDORE  
COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS ONCE AGAIN.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER...BUT MAINLY OVER WATER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OTHER 
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE 
LIKELY.  

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE
WESTWARD TO NEAR VERACRUZ.  TIDES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ISIDORE MAY CAUSE SOME
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...21.3 N... 89.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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