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HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE GROWING STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 
55 MILES...90 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST 
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...130 
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
ISIDORE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EYE WILL 
LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN YUCATAN THIS EVENING...BUT JUST A 
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE EYE AND THE MOST 
INTENSE WINDS ONSHORE.
 
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER 
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA... 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CUBA... 
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TODAY. 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 86.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

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