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HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AND EXPECTED TO GET STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND 
OF COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA 
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 
60 MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST 
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES...120 
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS 
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON 
THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS 
ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN 
YUCATAN BY THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
BEFORE ISIDORE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE 
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...ALONG 
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TODAY. 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY ALONG THE NORTH COAST 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 86.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE 
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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