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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
 
...ISIDORE CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...HAS NOT 
CHANGED IN INTENSITY... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA FOR
THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SANCTI-SPIRITUS AND CIEGO DE
AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THIS TRACK...ISIDORE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA ON THURSDAY.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS MOVING AWAY
FROM JAMAICA...CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SINCE MOST
OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR  60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES
...140 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.  HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
OUTER RAINBANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS 
LATE THURSDAY. 
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.7 N... 79.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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