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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
 
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.9 WEST OR 
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON 
WEDNESDAY.  MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE DEPRESSION
ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IF 
STRENGTHENING OCCURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER 
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 77.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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