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TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE UPPER 
TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TO HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FAY WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED 
TONIGHT.  A GENERAL SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR  60 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND WINDS COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE 
CENTER.  NEARLY ALL OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WITH FAY ARE 
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION WELL REMOVED FROM 
THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY OF 4 TO 8 
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH SOME LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TIDE GAUGE OBSERVATIONS FROM FREEPORT TEXAS SHOW THAT STORM SURGE IS
NOW 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL.  THE STORM SURGE IS FORECAST
TO REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
 
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 95.0 W.  MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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