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TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
...HEAVY RAINS FROM FAY EDGING ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TO HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN WORKING
HARD TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER THIS MORNING.  BASED ON THEIR REPORTS...AT 1 PM CDT...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

BECAUSE THE CENTER OF FAY IS SO POORLY DEFINED...CHANGES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE TRUE MOTION
OF THE OVERALL WEATHER SYSTEM.  FAY IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC...BUT A 
GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE 
CENTER.  NEARLY ALL OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WITH FAY ARE 
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION WELL REMOVED FROM 
THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY OF 4 TO 8 
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH SOME LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TIDE GAUGE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT ISABEL TO SABINE PASS TEXAS SHOW 
THAT STORM SURGE IS NOW 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL.  
THE STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 94.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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