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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN AUG 04 2002

...BERTHA MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST AND
SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 
45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
 
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH AND THIS MOTION 
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL 
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE 
BROAD CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE NEW ORLEANS  
METROPOLITAN AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF 
BERTHA MAKES LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES...MAINLY 
NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 
IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
POSSIBLE INLAND FRESH WATER FLOODING.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS 
FARTHER EAST OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. 
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM ALABAMA EASTWARD TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 89.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT...MONDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
  
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