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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.5N 78.7W 39 1 X X 40 FT PIERCE FL X 2 X X 2
25.5N 76.0W X 21 2 X 23 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 1 2
29.5N 72.3W X 1 13 2 16 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 2 1 3
MKJS 185N 779W 2 1 X X 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2
MUGM 200N 751W X 3 1 X 4 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2
MUCM 214N 779W 31 2 X X 33 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4
MUCF 221N 805W 42 X X X 42 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 4 4
MUSN 216N 826W 6 X X X 6 NANTUCKET MA X X X 6 6
MUHA 230N 824W 2 X X X 2 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5
MBJT 215N 712W X X 2 X 2 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4
MYMM 224N 730W X 3 3 X 6 PORTLAND ME X X X 3 3
MYSM 241N 745W X 14 4 X 18 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 4 4
MYEG 235N 758W 2 19 1 X 22 EASTPORT ME X X X 4 4
MYAK 241N 776W 14 14 X X 28 ST JOHN NB X X X 4 4
MYNN 251N 775W 5 19 X X 24 MONCTON NB X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W 1 11 1 X 13 YARMOUTH NS X X X 6 6
BERMUDA X X X 8 8 HALIFAX NS X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL 2 2 X X 4 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL 1 4 X X 5 SYDNEY NS X X X 2 2
W PALM BEACH FL X 3 1 X 4 EDDY POINT NS X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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