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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.0N 80.0W 53 1 X X 54 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 3 4
25.0N 77.0W 2 27 2 X 31 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 4 5
29.0N 73.0W X X 15 2 17 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3
MWCG 193N 814W 73 X X X 73 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3
MUCM 214N 779W 14 12 X X 26 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W 54 X X X 54 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3
MUSN 216N 826W 36 X X X 36 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4
MUHA 230N 824W 11 6 X X 17 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 4 4
MYMM 224N 730W X 1 3 X 4 NANTUCKET MA X X X 6 6
MYSM 241N 745W X 8 9 X 17 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5
MYEG 235N 758W 1 18 4 X 23 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4
MYAK 241N 776W 8 27 X X 35 PORTLAND ME X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W 3 28 1 X 32 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 19 4 X 23 EASTPORT ME X X X 3 3
BERMUDA X X X 7 7 ST JOHN NB X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL 3 15 X X 18 YARMOUTH NS X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL 1 16 1 X 18 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2
W PALM BEACH FL X 11 2 X 13 KEY WEST FL 2 9 X X 11
FT PIERCE FL X 5 2 X 7 MARCO ISLAND FL X 4 X X 4
COCOA BEACH FL X 2 2 X 4 FT MYERS FL X 2 X X 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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