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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU OCT 17 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.6N 82.4W 36 X X X 36 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 4 2 6
23.9N 80.0W 2 21 3 X 26 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 3 5
27.6N 76.3W X X 16 3 19 CHARLESTON SC X X 1 6 7
MWCG 193N 814W 38 X X X 38 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 7 8
MUCM 214N 779W 1 10 3 X 14 WILMINGTON NC X X X 9 9
MUCF 221N 805W 16 11 X X 27 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 10 10
MUSN 216N 826W 36 X X X 36 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 11 11
MUHA 230N 824W 21 7 X X 28 NORFOLK VA X X X 8 8
MUAN 219N 850W 14 2 X X 16 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 7 7
MYMM 224N 730W X X 2 1 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5
MYSM 241N 745W X 1 8 2 11 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4
MYEG 235N 758W X 3 10 X 13 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4
MYAK 241N 776W X 11 10 X 21 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W X 7 14 1 22 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X 5 16 1 22 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3
BERMUDA X X X 5 5 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL 2 20 3 X 25 KEY WEST FL 4 18 2 X 24
MIAMI FL X 14 9 X 23 MARCO ISLAND FL X 13 6 X 19
W PALM BEACH FL X 7 13 X 20 FT MYERS FL X 9 7 X 16
FT PIERCE FL X 4 13 X 17 VENICE FL X 5 7 X 12
COCOA BEACH FL X 2 12 1 15 TAMPA FL X 2 6 1 9
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 9 2 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X 4 1 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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