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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU OCT 17 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.7N 82.3W 43 X X X 43 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 9 4 13
23.9N 80.6W 5 21 1 X 27 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 4 6 10
26.8N 77.5W X 2 16 2 20 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 7 8
MWCG 193N 814W 36 X X X 36 CHARLESTON SC X X 1 8 9
MUCM 214N 779W X 7 3 X 10 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 10 10
MUCF 221N 805W 21 7 X X 28 WILMINGTON NC X X X 10 10
MUSN 216N 826W 44 X X X 44 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 10 10
MUHA 230N 824W 25 7 X X 32 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 10 10
MUAN 219N 850W 16 3 X X 19 NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7
MYMM 224N 730W X X 1 1 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4
MYSM 241N 745W X X 7 2 9 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3
MYEG 235N 758W X 2 8 1 11 KEY WEST FL 3 21 2 X 26
MYAK 241N 776W X 9 10 X 19 MARCO ISLAND FL X 14 7 X 21
MYNN 251N 775W X 6 13 1 20 FT MYERS FL X 9 9 1 19
MYGF 266N 787W X 5 15 1 21 VENICE FL X 5 10 X 15
BERMUDA X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL X 2 9 2 13
MARATHON FL 2 21 3 X 26 CEDAR KEY FL X X 6 3 9
MIAMI FL X 14 9 1 24 ST MARKS FL X X 2 2 4
W PALM BEACH FL X 7 14 X 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 2 3
FT PIERCE FL X 3 15 1 19 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 1 2
COCOA BEACH FL X 2 12 2 16 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 1 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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