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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.1N 90.7W 41 X X 1 42 PORT ARTHUR TX X 10 12 1 23
28.0N 92.2W 5 23 1 X 29 GALVESTON TX X 12 9 X 21
30.5N 92.7W X 7 14 1 22 FREEPORT TX X 10 8 X 18
MUAN 219N 850W 4 X X X 4 PORT O CONNOR TX X 6 6 1 13
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 2 3 1 6
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 29N 87W X 1 3 3 7
PENSACOLA FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 28N 89W 8 9 1 X 18
MOBILE AL X 1 6 5 12 GULF 28N 91W 9 18 1 X 28
GULFPORT MS X 2 9 3 14 GULF 28N 93W 2 25 X 1 28
BURAS LA X 10 6 1 17 GULF 28N 95W X 15 3 1 19
NEW ORLEANS LA X 8 10 1 19 GULF 27N 96W X 7 2 1 10
NEW IBERIA LA X 12 10 1 23
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM WED TO 7AM THU
C FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU
D FROM 7PM THU TO 7PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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