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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.6N 89.5W 41 1 X X 42 GALVESTON TX X 5 13 2 20
27.4N 91.5W 3 26 X X 29 FREEPORT TX X 4 12 2 18
29.5N 93.0W X 10 12 1 23 PORT O CONNOR TX X 2 9 2 13
MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 5 3 8
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 2 1 3
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 1 2
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 29N 87W X 3 2 3 8
PENSACOLA FL X X 3 5 8 GULF 28N 89W 5 15 1 X 21
MOBILE AL X 1 5 5 11 GULF 28N 91W 2 24 1 X 27
GULFPORT MS X 2 8 3 13 GULF 28N 93W X 21 4 X 25
BURAS LA X 10 6 1 17 GULF 28N 95W X 8 9 1 18
NEW ORLEANS LA X 7 9 2 18 GULF 27N 96W X 3 7 1 11
NEW IBERIA LA X 8 12 1 21 GULF 25N 96W X 1 1 1 3
PORT ARTHUR TX X 4 15 2 21
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU
C FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU
D FROM 1PM THU TO 1PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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