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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
24.3N 88.2W 43 1 X X 44 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 12 6 18
26.0N 90.5W 3 27 X X 30 GALVESTON TX X X 13 5 18
28.1N 92.2W X 10 13 X 23 FREEPORT TX X X 12 5 17
MUSN 216N 826W 99 X X X 99 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 9 5 14
MUHA 230N 824W 45 X X X 45 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 5 5 10
MUAN 219N 850W 76 X X X 76 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 2 3 5
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 2 3
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 1 4 3 8
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W X 11 7 1 19
PENSACOLA FL X X 2 6 8 GULF 28N 91W X 13 10 1 24
MOBILE AL X X 3 7 10 GULF 28N 93W X 8 14 1 23
GULFPORT MS X X 6 7 13 GULF 28N 95W X 2 13 2 17
BURAS LA X 2 10 4 16 GULF 27N 96W X 1 9 2 12
NEW ORLEANS LA X 1 10 5 16 GULF 25N 96W X 1 2 2 5
NEW IBERIA LA X 1 13 4 18
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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