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HURRICANE LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU OCT 3 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
23.1N 85.8W 46 X X X 46 GULFPORT MS X X 1 11 12
24.5N 88.3W 4 23 1 X 28 BURAS LA X X 5 10 15
25.8N 90.8W X 10 10 1 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 2 12 14
MUCF 221N 805W 31 X X X 31 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 13 15
MUSN 216N 826W 82 X X X 82 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 14 15
MUHA 230N 824W 56 X X X 56 GALVESTON TX X X 1 13 14
MUAN 219N 850W 47 X X X 47 FREEPORT TX X X 1 13 14
MMCZ 205N 869W 2 X X X 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 11 12
KEY WEST FL 6 1 X X 7 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 7 8
MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 X 1 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 4 5
FT MYERS FL X 1 X 1 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 4 6
VENICE FL X 1 1 X 2 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 6 11
TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 89W X 2 12 4 18
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X 1 12 6 19
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X 9 8 17
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 95W X X 4 10 14
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 27N 96W X X 3 8 11
PENSACOLA FL X X 1 7 8 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 4 6
MOBILE AL X X 1 8 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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