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TROPICAL STORM LILI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED OCT 2 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.6N 79.3W 54 X X X 54 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
21.6N 80.7W 27 10 1 X 38 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
22.4N 82.3W 1 25 3 1 30 KEY WEST FL X 13 8 2 23
MKJP 179N 768W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 9 5 15
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 FT MYERS FL X X 6 7 13
MWCG 193N 814W 7 6 1 1 15 VENICE FL X X 4 9 13
MUCM 214N 779W 40 X X X 40 TAMPA FL X X 1 8 9
MUCF 221N 805W 23 14 X X 37 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 7 7
MUSN 216N 826W 1 20 3 1 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W X 23 5 1 29 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7
MUAN 219N 850W X 2 10 6 18 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 8 9 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W X 3 1 1 5 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 1 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 2 3 BURAS LA X X X 5 5
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL X 11 7 2 20 GULF 29N 85W X X X 9 9
MIAMI FL X 1 7 3 11 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 8 8
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 91W X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
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