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TROPICAL STORM LILI SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM AST MON SEP 23 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 1230 PM AST...1530Z...THE CENTER OF LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU SEP 26 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
13.9N 64.9W 47 X X 1 48 MDSD 185N 697W X 1 15 5 21
14.9N 67.4W 3 29 X X 32 MDCB 176N 714W X X 14 8 22
15.9N 69.5W X 12 12 1 25 MTPP 186N 724W X X 5 15 20
SKPG 125N 717W X X 3 4 7 MTCA 183N 738W X X 2 16 18
TNCC 122N 690W X 5 4 1 10 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 9 9
SVMG 110N 640W 2 X X X 2 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 6 6
TTPT 112N 608W 3 X X X 3 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 14 14
TGPY 120N 618W 33 X X X 33 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 5 5
TBPB 131N 595W 99 X X X 99 TJSJ 184N 661W X 9 4 1 14
TVSV 131N 612W 86 X X X 86 MDPP 198N 707W X X 6 11 17
TLPL 138N 610W 84 X X X 84 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 11 12
TFFF 146N 610W 51 X X X 51 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 9 9
TDPR 153N 614W 21 X X X 21 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 4 4
SVBS 157N 636W 33 X X 1 34 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 5 5
TFFR 163N 615W 2 1 X X 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2
TKPK 173N 627W 2 1 X X 3 ST CROIX VI 1 10 2 X 13
TNCM 181N 631W X 1 1 X 2 ST THOMAS VI X 7 2 1 10
TISX 177N 648W 1 10 2 X 13 SAN JUAN PR X 9 4 1 14
TIST 183N 650W X 7 2 1 10 PONCE PR X 13 4 1 18
TJPS 180N 666W X 13 4 1 18
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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