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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 22 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED SEP 25 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
13.5N 60.0W 48 1 X X 49 TNCM 181N 631W X 7 10 1 18
14.5N 63.0W 1 32 1 X 34 TISX 177N 648W X 4 17 2 23
15.5N 66.0W X 4 21 1 26 TIST 183N 650W X 1 16 2 19
SKPG 125N 717W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W X X 16 5 21
TNCC 122N 690W X X 2 3 5 MDSD 185N 697W X X 2 16 18
SVMG 110N 640W X 3 1 X 4 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 15 15
TTPP 106N 614W 1 2 X X 3 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 13 13
TTPT 112N 608W 7 3 X X 10 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 9 9
TGPY 120N 618W 7 12 X 1 20 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 4 4
TBPB 131N 595W 51 X X X 51 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 15 5 20
TVSV 131N 612W 27 10 X X 37 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 14 14
TLPL 138N 610W 33 9 X X 42 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 8 8
TFFF 146N 610W 29 13 X X 42 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 3 3
TDPR 153N 614W 12 25 X X 37 ST CROIX VI X 4 17 2 23
SVBS 157N 636W X 27 5 X 32 ST THOMAS VI X 1 16 2 19
TFFR 163N 615W 3 26 X X 29 SAN JUAN PR X X 15 5 20
TAPA 171N 618W X 20 2 X 22 PONCE PR X X 16 5 21
TKPK 173N 627W X 17 6 X 23
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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