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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
30.5N 90.2W 49 4 X X 53 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7
35.2N 87.9W X 21 7 X 28 HALIFAX NS X X X 6 6
39.3N 82.2W X X 12 6 18 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 4 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 2 X 2 SYDNEY NS X X X 6 6
WILMINGTON NC X X 2 X 2 EDDY POINT NS X X X 6 6
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 1 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 6 6
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 1 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 5 5
NORFOLK VA X X 2 3 5 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 4 4
OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 6 7 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 9 9 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 X X 2
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 9 9 PENSACOLA FL 5 12 1 X 18
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 8 8 MOBILE AL 24 13 X X 37
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 8 8 GULFPORT MS 40 6 X X 46
NANTUCKET MA X X X 7 7 BURAS LA 54 X X X 54
HYANNIS MA X X X 7 7 NEW ORLEANS LA 55 1 X X 56
BOSTON MA X X X 9 9 NEW IBERIA LA 40 3 X X 43
PORTLAND ME X X X 9 9 PORT ARTHUR TX 3 2 X X 5
BAR HARBOR ME X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 87W 2 2 X X 4
EASTPORT ME X X X 8 8 GULF 28N 89W 36 1 X X 37
ST JOHN NB X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 91W 82 X X X 82
MONCTON NB X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 93W 15 X X X 15
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI
C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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