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HURRICANE ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.8N 86.4W 42 X X X 42 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
22.9N 87.5W 27 1 1 1 30 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3
22.8N 88.5W 17 5 1 2 25 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3
MUSN 216N 826W 4 X 1 1 6 BURAS LA X X 1 5 6
MUHA 230N 824W 3 1 1 1 6 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4
MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4
MMCZ 205N 869W 9 2 3 2 16 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3
MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 5 6 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3
MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3
MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
MMSO 238N 982W X X X 3 3 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2
MMTM 222N 979W X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 3 3
MMTX 210N 974W X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3
MMVR 192N 961W X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 4 5
MMFR 185N 926W X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 89W X X 4 6 10
MMMD 210N 897W 2 6 5 4 17 GULF 28N 91W X X 3 7 10
KEY WEST FL X 1 X 2 3 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 7 8
MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X X 5 5
VENICE FL X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X X X 5 5
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X X X 7 7
PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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