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HURRICANE ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.5N 84.5W 53 X X X 53 TAMPA FL X X 1 5 6
23.0N 85.5W 34 1 X X 35 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4
23.5N 86.5W 14 8 2 1 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 3 3 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5
MUCF 221N 805W 1 1 2 3 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5
MUSN 216N 826W 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W 38 X X X 38 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
MUAN 219N 850W 39 X X X 39 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
MMCZ 205N 869W 2 2 1 5 10 BURAS LA X X X 7 7
MMMD 210N 897W X X 2 4 6 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 6 6
MARATHON FL 1 4 2 4 11 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4
MIAMI FL X 1 1 4 6 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 6 7
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 8 9
KEY WEST FL 7 4 1 3 15 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 10 12
MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 2 5 10 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 8 9
FT MYERS FL X 1 3 5 9 GULF 28N 93W X X X 5 5
VENICE FL X 1 2 6 9 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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