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HURRICANE ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.4N 84.2W 50 X X X 50 FT MYERS FL X 3 4 4 11
23.2N 85.0W 35 X 1 X 36 VENICE FL X 2 4 5 11
23.5N 85.5W 23 5 1 1 30 TAMPA FL X X 2 6 8
MUCF 221N 805W 8 X 1 1 10 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 5 5
MUSN 216N 826W 85 X X X 85 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3
MUHA 230N 824W 39 X X X 39 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5
MUAN 219N 850W 36 X X 1 37 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4
MMCZ 205N 869W 2 2 1 3 8 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 4 5 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3
MARATHON FL 3 4 3 3 13 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
MIAMI FL X 1 3 4 8 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 6 7
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 8 9
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
KEY WEST FL 10 4 2 2 18 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2
MARCO ISLAND FL 1 4 4 4 13
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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