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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.0N 83.6W 50 X X X 50 KEY WEST FL 10 6 2 2 20
23.0N 84.5W 31 3 X X 34 MARCO ISLAND FL X 5 4 5 14
23.5N 85.0W 15 12 1 X 28 FT MYERS FL X 2 5 6 13
MWCG 193N 814W 99 X X X 99 VENICE FL X 1 5 7 13
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL X X 2 7 9
MUCF 221N 805W 34 X X X 34 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 6 7
MUSN 216N 826W 67 X X X 67 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W 41 X X X 41 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7
MUAN 219N 850W 28 1 X 1 30 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7
MMCZ 205N 869W 1 3 2 3 9 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 3 3 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 6 6
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 2 3 BURAS LA X X X 7 7
MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 2 3 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL 4 6 3 3 16 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL X 2 3 5 10 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 9 10
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 9 10
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 10 11
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 91W X X X 7 7
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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