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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.3N 81.1W 57 X X X 57 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
22.4N 82.7W 24 14 X X 38 KEY WEST FL 2 16 2 2 22
23.3N 84.0W 1 24 2 1 28 MARCO ISLAND FL X 4 6 4 14
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 FT MYERS FL X 2 6 4 12
MWCG 193N 814W 27 X X X 27 VENICE FL X 1 6 5 12
MUCM 214N 779W 15 X X X 15 TAMPA FL X X 3 6 9
MUCF 221N 805W 45 X X X 45 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 6 7
MUSN 216N 826W 34 5 X X 39 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W 18 17 X X 35 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 6 7
MUAN 219N 850W X 15 4 2 21 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 4 6 10 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 5 5 BURAS LA X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL 1 12 2 2 17 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL X 2 3 4 9 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 8 9
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 8 9
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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