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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER  2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 04 2002
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 630 PM CDT...2330Z...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.0 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM EDT WED AUG  7 2002
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
30.5N  91.2W      49  X  X  X 49   GALVESTON TX       2  9  4  X 15
30.9N  92.8W      26  2  1  X 29   FREEPORT TX        1  6  5  X 12
31.4N  94.5W       9 13  2  X 24   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  1  5  X  6
PENSACOLA FL      15  X  X  X 15   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  2  X  2
MOBILE AL         50  X  X  X 50   GULF 29N 87W       2  X  1  X  3
GULFPORT MS       99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 89W       6  2  X  X  8
BURAS LA          99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 91W      12  2  1  X 15
NEW ORLEANS LA    74  X  X  X 74   GULF 28N 93W       4  5  2  X 11
NEW IBERIA LA     34  X  X  X 34   GULF 28N 95W       X  3  5  X  8
PORT ARTHUR TX    10  9  2  X 21   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  2  X  2
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM MON TO  1AM TUE
C FROM  1AM TUE TO  1PM TUE
D FROM  1PM TUE TO  1PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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