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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2002
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU JUL 18 2002
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
40.1N 60.5W 23 3 X 1 27 MONCTON NB X X 3 4 7
42.5N 57.8W 2 13 1 1 17 YARMOUTH NS X X 2 4 6
45.1N 57.2W X 9 4 2 15 HALIFAX NS X 3 3 4 10
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 SABLE ISLAND NS 3 11 1 2 17
NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 SYDNEY NS X 6 4 3 13
HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 EDDY POINT NS X 6 4 2 12
BOSTON MA X X X 2 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X 3 5 4 12
PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2 BURGEO NFLD X 3 6 3 12
BAR HARBOR ME X X X 4 4 ILE ST PIERRE X 4 6 3 13
EASTPORT ME X X 1 4 5 CAPE RACE NFLD X 1 5 4 10
ST JOHN NB X X 2 4 6 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 3 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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