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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1202
0300Z MON SEP 16 2002
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUERTO VALLARTA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.7N 113.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
 
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