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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
2100Z MON SEP 02 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..470NE 350SE 350SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 116.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 118.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 120.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N 121.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 116.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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