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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
1500Z MON SEP 02 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 280SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 119.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 121.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 115.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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