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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
1500Z SUN SEP 01 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  921 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 111.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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