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HURRICANE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
0900Z SAT AUG 31 2002
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.5W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......175NE 135SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 175SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.5W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 106.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 112.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 115.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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