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TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1002
0300Z SAT AUG 31 2002
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.1N 108.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 105.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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