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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
0300Z WED OCT 16 2002
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND
CIEGO DE AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND THE
ABACOS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  81.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  81.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  82.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.6N  80.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N  75.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  20SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N  81.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 29.0N  72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.0N  65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  20SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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