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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1402
2100Z TUE OCT 15 2002
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA FOR WESTERN CUBA MAY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 82.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 82.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N 80.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N 76.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 82.2W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 29.5N 72.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 40.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 20SW 40NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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