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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
1500Z TUE OCT 15 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  82.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  82.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  82.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.3N  81.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N  79.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.6N  76.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  20SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  82.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 29.5N  72.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  20SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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