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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
0900Z TUE OCT 15 2002
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE
AVILA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES
OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  82.9W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  82.9W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  83.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.4N  82.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  20SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  82.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 29.0N  73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 38.0N  65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  20SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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