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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
2100Z MON OCT 14 2002
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
KEY WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  83.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  83.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  83.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.1N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.6N  82.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 23.9N  80.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  83.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 27.6N  76.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N  68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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