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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1402
1500Z MON OCT 14 2002
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...
CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 82.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.6N 83.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.9N 80.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 83.0W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 26.8N 77.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 71.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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