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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1402
1500Z MON OCT 14 2002
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...
CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  83.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  83.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  82.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.6N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.7N  82.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.9N  80.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  83.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 26.8N  77.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N  71.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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